Decommissioning Risk Analysis
Analytical Decisions for Late-Life Asset Management
We deliver QRM and Decision Analytics services that strengthen late-life asset management and offshore decommissioning strategies. We apply Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic forecasting to assess uncertainties across Cessation of Production (CoP), Well P&A, Topsides, and Subsea Removal to optimise project outcomes, improve cost predictability, and enhance regulatory assurance.
Assessing Risk in Late-Life Asset Management and Decommissioning
We apply Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) and Monte Carlo simulation to quantify cost and schedule uncertainty across CAPEX, OPEX, ABEX, and Cessation of Production (CoP). By modelling thousands of potential outcomes, we assess cost exposure and risk drivers to enhance decision confidence on decommissioning execution.
We conduct dynamic risk quantification for well abandonment, subsea removal, and deconstruction planning, using Bayesian updating and Monte Carlo simulation. This adaptive approach enables real-time reassessment of risk as new project data emerges — ensuring decommissioning timelines remain reliable and cost-controlled.
Our Real Options Analysis framework evaluates the financial and operational value of flexibility in decommissioning strategies — from single-lift vs piece-small removal to campaign deferral and timing decisions. Using decision tree modelling, we quantify trade-offs to support risk-driven, economically viable project strategies.
Our offshore decommissioning analytics integrate QRM methodologies across the full lifecycle — from early planning through post-CoP monitoring. We align strategies with regulatory frameworks (NSTA, NOPSEMA, OPRED), quantify risk across asset portfolios, and ensure safe, cost-efficient, and environmentally compliant delivery.
Assisting Management in Choosing Economically Viable Strategies
See our case studies showcasing Monte Carlo-based cost and schedule modelling applied to decommissioning campaigns, Well P&A, and removal strategies to improve cost certainty, schedule efficiency, and overall project resilience.
Try DecRisk Integrated Projects, an advanced analytics platform purpose-built for decommissioning risk management. DecRisk supports scenario modelling, contingency evaluation, and insurance coverage optimisation using QRM-based simulations. Empower your team with real-time visibility of risk exposure across late-life projects.
Contact our risk consultants for clear, risk-informed decommissioning projects that ensure regulatory compliance, as well as meet cost and schedule targets safely.
Quantify Decommissioning Risk. Improve Confidence. Ensure Compliance.
OSL’s QRM and Decision Analytics services provide the insight and clarity needed for safe, cost-efficient, and regulation-aligned decommissioning.